Can Edwards end Jokić’s reign in Kia MVP chase?

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Decades ago when former NBA commissioner David Stern moved barriers and crossed borders and helped make the game truly global, he envisioned a league where foreign players would populate rosters and eventually All-Star teams.
But dominate the MVP award?
The trophy is named after Michael Jordan but there’s no truth to the wisecrack that he’s the last American-born to win it. Maybe it just seems that way lately, given the yearly arm-wrestle between Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, which shows few signs of ending.
Not since James Harden in 2018 has someone from the U.S. raised the most cherished individual award above his head. While the sport was invented by a Canadian (James Naismith) it has been dominated by the U.S. ever since, from the caged West 4th courts in Manhattan to the playgrounds of South-Central LA and everything in between.
That said, the game changed, and for the better when Stern’s dream was realized. The more incoming talent, the finer the product and the deeper the interest worldwide.
Which brings us to this: Will this finally be the year when the foreign grip is loosened?
And will Friday’s game between the Nuggets and Jokić against the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards (9:30 ET, ESPN) serve as a potential torch/trophy passing?
While Jokić is coming off an epic triple-double against Brooklyn — 29-18-16, the second player (after Oscar Robertson) ever with that stat line — and three MVPs in four years, Edwards is once again showing the skills that elevate him as a young basketball takeover.
Wolves president Tim Connelly said Edwards has a chance to be the game’s best ever. And Edwards’ response?
“I think he’s right.”
The Olympic experience last summer can only motivate Edwards, as being around Team USA and LeBron James, Stephen Curry and his idol, Kevin Durant put him in the company of previous MVP winners. Edwards even said himself, before rubbing shoulders with them, that he intends to be better.
“Playing against the best players in the world in practice all summer, that was the best thing for me,” he said.
He came into this season determined to enhance his game and already is showing a fresh wrinkle — as a volume deep shooter. He’s third in the league in total 3-point attempts (61) while shooting an impressive 41.5% overall from deep.
Obviously, that’s a small sample size, and those numbers tend to drop as the season goes. But by comparison, Curry averaged a league-leading 11.8 attempts last season while shooting 40.8%.
Edwards has never made 40% for a season, and last year attempted just 6.7 per game, so this is different as well as drastic. It can only make him more dangerous because Edwards is at his best while attacking the rim. With defenses forced to respect his outside shot and play him tight on the perimeter, Edwards now pump faking and driving could have a posterizing effect.
“I want to be whatever the team needs me to be,” Edwards said, “whether it’s scoring, passing, defending, getting rebounds, showing everyone I’m coachable.”
Here’s how Edwards can collect some first-place MVP votes, assuming he stays at or near this level:
1. No Karl-Anthony Towns
With Towns in New York, Edwards must replace some of his former teammate’s deep shots. Perhaps this leads to an increase in scoring as well if his efficiency is reasonable. Edwards is right at 30 points per game and it’s not unrealistic to see him increase that between now and season’s end. If he challenges for the scoring lead, that’ll give him statistical clout.
2. Wolves winning?
This is the tricky part. The West is deeper than last year, so it’ll be a challenge to remain at or near the top of the West, as Minnesota was in 2023-24. If the Wolves finish top-three, that’s enough to dismiss any team-isn’t-good-enough arguments.
3. A fresh face
He’s part of the evolution of the game, a member of the impatient young core in their 20s who got next. The only snag is whether Luka Dončić from Slovenia or Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two other members of the young club, beat him to the trophy.
It won’t be easy for Edwards or another American to break the foreign-born grip, because Joker, among the others, is primed to remain among the game’s very best this season.
Just to be clear: Jokić doesn’t seem to care if he wins another MVP. And believe him when he says that. His place in history is already secured, and besides, he’s just hunting Larry O’Brien trophies when he’s not tending to horses.
But to grab his second championship, he’ll need to produce an MVP-caliber season — especially with the Nuggets appearing vulnerable — so his MVP desire is a rather moot point.
It’s really about the voters and whether they’ll get Joker Fatigue when it comes time to cast ballots in 2025. Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird are the only players to win three straight seasons, and Russell and LeBron James are the only to win four times in five seasons. Jokić would match both of those accomplishments.
Three reasons why (and maybe how) that could happen by next summer:
1. Jokić is a walking triple-double
As long as he’s flashing that all-around dominance, he’ll be in contention. But here’s another example where voters get fickle: Could they suffer from triple-double fatigue? Russell Westbrook won in 2016-17 by averaging a triple-double. When he averaged it again four seasons later, he got only one MVP vote.
2. Nuggets are shaky without him on the floor
That has proven true even in their championship season. When he’s playing, the Nuggets usually run smoothly. When he sits, they falter. That reflects a “true” MVP, making his team better. Which leads to …
3. Nuggets must win 50-plus games
Again, this is where it becomes as much a challenge for Joker as for Edwards. Their MVP fates could rest with where their teams finish in the standings, and the West is unforgiving — much like the voters. A team’s record remains non-negotiable among voters. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the only MVP winner whose team didn’t make the playoffs.
In this decade, only three American-born players — LeBron, Harden and Curry — managed to finish among the MVP finalists. Last year the top four vote-getters were foreign players.
This is a season that beckons for a shakeup. Jayson Tatum should be in the mix with the defending champion Boston Celtics. Maybe Anthony Davis, off to a hot start with the Los Angeles Lakers. New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson was the highest-finishing American-born player in last season’s voting.
And then there’s a confident North Star in Minnesota. Edwards sees only one path to not only win MVP, but to be elevated as the best ever.
“Just work,” Edwards said. “Go out on the court and just believe it. I’ve seen a lot of guys who have a chance to be really great at this game but they just don’t believe it. Some guys put the work in but don’t believe it, some guys believe it but don’t put the work in. I believe it and put the work in. If it don’t happen, it doesn’t, if it do, it does.”
He paused.
“It probably will happen.”
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